What Persuades Americans on ICE?

ICE enforcement has become one of the most salient and emotionally charged political issues in the country. But which ways of talking about it actually change hearts and minds?

To answer that question, we worked with immigration advocacy and messaging experts to develop and test 13 messages about ICE and immigration enforcement—with the goal of measuring their effects on vote choice, partisan favorability, mobilization, and attitudes toward ICE.

The 13 messages fit into four categories (Economic, Pragmatic / Positive, Appeals to Principle, and Victims / Community Focused). You can scroll through each message below.

Before seeing the results, which message do you think performed best?

Key Findings

1. Centering on real stories of families and children who were victims of ICE performed the strongest across metrics.

The message ‘Children & Families’ was effective at moving Republicans and independents—and mobilizing Democrats. The message is grounded in safety value, blames Trump and Republicans, and centers families in vivid, real stories.

2. Proactive messaging about ICE is a winning strategy.

A straight affordability message (‘Affordability’) underperformed relative to one that incorporated ICE (‘Affordability + ICE’). We know that ICE’s actions have dominated the news cycle, but it is worth noting that candidates who talk about affordability and ignore an issue as salient and charged as ICE do so with some level of risk.

The performance of the additional messages highlight other opportunities to communicate about ICE effectively.

3. Blend affordability and ICE carefully: Connect ICE funding to family budgets, not healthcare or food assistance.

We found that the 'Affordability + ICE' works decently well, and was the only message to move Republicans and Independents to favor Democrats. The message blames Trump and Republicans, and links affordability (groceries, healthcare, utility bills) and ICE together. On the other hand, a message emphasizing healthcare cuts, which scored the highest in a recent, widely circulated memo by another firm, mostly had neutral or negative impacts on desired outcome metrics.

4. Don’t just blame Trump and the Republicans. State or allude to their motivation for their actions.

'Common Sense + Motivation' had higher scores in vote choice and mobilization than 'Common Sense' did without. This suggests it’s necessary to always attribute why Trump and Republicans’ ICE use these tactics (distraction, intimidation, corruption, greed etc.).

5. Leverage the credibility of respected law enforcement professionals.

‘Rule of Law’ was the only message in the “Appeals to Principle’ category that performed strongly. It centers the law enforcement officials and former federal officials who are criticizing the tactics of ICE and blames Republicans for ignoring them. It was the message most likely to persuade people to oppose ICE.

Message Implications

This research suggests that centering vivid stories of families being torn apart is impactful for both persuasion and mobilization. It also seems that linking affordability and ICE has the potential to improve perceptions of Democrats among Republicans and independents. Together, these results indicate that effective persuasion on ICE requires combining emotional clarity, material stakes, and credible validators.

Message	Children & Families	Affordability + ICE.	Rule of Law + Accountability
Text	Our federal government is supposed to protect people and keep communities safe. But instead, under Donald Trump and Republicans in Washington, ICE's tactics have traumatized children and torn families apart. Masked ICE agents have surrounded schools, pulled kids out of their beds in their own apartments in Chicago, detained a five year old and moved him and his father 1000 miles away, and hospitalized a 6-month old infant whose family was just driving home from a basketball game when their car was tear gassed. It's time to elect leaders in Washington who will protect our children and keep families together, not tear our communities apart.	America should be a place where families can afford the basics and feel safe in their communities. But, Trump and the Republicans in Washington have made America unaffordable and unsafe. They're lining the pockets of Trump's billionaire friends and corporate donors and giving ICE BILLIONS while working families can't afford groceries, healthcare, or utility bills — and now many fear they'll become ICE's next target. It's time to elect leaders in Washington who will fight for working families — not billionaires and an out of control ICE — and stop ICE from invading our communities.	Our federal government is supposed to protect people and keep communities safe. But instead, under Donald Trump and Republicans in Washington, ICE is breaking basic law-enforcement norms and operating without real accountability. Local law enforcement leaders and former federal agents have warned that masked agents, unclear authority, and a lack of oversight escalate confrontations, undermine public trust, and make policing more dangerous for everyone. Republicans in Washington continue to defend these tactics instead of listening to professionals who know they don't work. It's time to elect leaders in Washington who will restore accountability, transparency, and the rule of law.
Key Elements	Grounded in safety value, blames Trump and Republicans, centers families, vivid real stories.	Grounded in safety value, blames Trump and Republicans, links affordability (groceries, healthcare, utility bills) and ICE together.	Grounded in safety value, blames Trump and Republicans, centers trusted local law enforcement and highlights norms ICE is breaking.
Strengths	It moves Republicans and Independents on the generic ballot. It moves Independents on Democratic Favorability. It mobilizes Democrats	It moves Republicans on the generic ballot. The only one that moves Republicans and Independents on favorability to Democrats.	It moves Democrats on the generic ballot by 3.6%. Strongest message at lifting ICE opposition (at the 80% level).

A Note on Methodology

Persuasion Lab is a rapid-testing initiative focused on measuring what actually persuades Americans on the issues that matter most in the moment. Messages were tested in a randomized controlled experiment conducted January 31–February 2, 2026, with approximately 1,000 respondents per condition. Outcomes included vote choice, partisan favorability, mobilization, emotional activation, and ICE-specific attitudes such as support for ICE, funding levels, and immigration reform.

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Thanks for reading! To read more about the results that informed these recommendations, check out our supporting insights here.

In the next round of message tests, we will be testing competing narratives around affordability.

If your organization develops messages, creates content, or advises campaigns, we invite you to become a Persuasion Lab Partner. Partnership costs nothing. In return, partners help shape what gets tested—and commit to using and sharing the insights with messengers seeking to persuade across the ecosystem.

Join us: persuasionlab@swayable.com